Here is his breakdown of the Giants' top 4 :
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355
RANK #6
AGE - 19
Madison Bumgarner (LHP)
San Francisco Giants - TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Augusta)
A year ago, Bumgarner was a live arm, a projectable body, and a name to file away for the future. He only started throwing breaking balls late in his high school career, and the rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts -- including me -- assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot. He's unusual for pitchers of his ilk in that his arm action is fairly short and compact; many pitchers who throw from below 3/4 get long in the back, almost slinging the ball, and have trouble turning over a changeup or staying on top of breaking balls as a result. His command and control are both above-average, and he was aggressive in going after South Atlantic League hitters, who stood little chance against him. The Giants were careful with Bumgarner in 2008, but there's a good chance he finishes this year in Double-A and shows up in the majors at some point in 2010.
Madison Bumgarner (LHP)
San Francisco Giants - TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Augusta)
A year ago, Bumgarner was a live arm, a projectable body, and a name to file away for the future. He only started throwing breaking balls late in his high school career, and the rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts -- including me -- assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot. He's unusual for pitchers of his ilk in that his arm action is fairly short and compact; many pitchers who throw from below 3/4 get long in the back, almost slinging the ball, and have trouble turning over a changeup or staying on top of breaking balls as a result. His command and control are both above-average, and he was aggressive in going after South Atlantic League hitters, who stood little chance against him. The Giants were careful with Bumgarner in 2008, but there's a good chance he finishes this year in Double-A and shows up in the majors at some point in 2010.
RANK #8
AGE - 22
Buster Posey, (C)
TOP '08 LEVEL: A- (Salem-Keizer)
TOP '08 LEVEL: A- (Salem-Keizer)
Posey presents a very balanced set of tools that, given his position, make him among the most valuable properties in the minor leagues. A recent convert from shortstop who also pitched a little in college, Posey is a plus defensive catcher with a plus arm (he pitched in the low 90s), soft hands, and a lot of energy at a position that demands it. At the plate, he has a compact stroke, excellent bat control, and a good eye, so while he doesn't project to hit for more than average power, he should make plenty of hard contact and end up a doubles hitter with 15-20 home runs per year. The combination of a projected plus hit tool and currently plus defense make him a very high-probability prospect -- he plays in the big leagues no matter what, be it as a quality backup if he never improves at all or as a star everyday catcher if he reaches his offensive ceiling.
RANK - #26
AGE: 20
Tim Alderson (RHP)
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (San Jose)
Alderson was one of only two high school pitchers from the 2007 draft to start the year in high-A -- Rick Porcello was the other -- and he had the added challe
nge of pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, although San Jose is itself a pitcher's park within that circuit. He spent the entire year there at age 19 and was outstanding, ending the season on a six-start run where he walked one batter over 37 innings while fanning 28.
He sits with a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph with the promise of more velocity in the future, and his hard curveball is already plus, with tight rotation and a late two-plane break. With Bumgarner making so much progress with his secondary stuff, he's passed Alderson for a couple of reasons. One is Alderson's funky delivery; he lands on a slightly stiff front leg, and to get the ball to his glove side, he ends up throwing across his body due to a low arm slot. His changeup really hasn't progressed through one year in pro ball, leaving him vulnerable to lefties.
The delivery works, so the Giants aren't likely to alter it; if the changeup improves at all with use, his plus-plus command and out-pitch breaking ball give him the upside of a No. 2 or 3 starter.
Tim Alderson (RHP)
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (San Jose)
Alderson was one of only two high school pitchers from the 2007 draft to start the year in high-A -- Rick Porcello was the other -- and he had the added challe
nge of pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, although San Jose is itself a pitcher's park within that circuit. He spent the entire year there at age 19 and was outstanding, ending the season on a six-start run where he walked one batter over 37 innings while fanning 28.He sits with a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph with the promise of more velocity in the future, and his hard curveball is already plus, with tight rotation and a late two-plane break. With Bumgarner making so much progress with his secondary stuff, he's passed Alderson for a couple of reasons. One is Alderson's funky delivery; he lands on a slightly stiff front leg, and to get the ball to his glove side, he ends up throwing across his body due to a low arm slot. His changeup really hasn't progressed through one year in pro ball, leaving him vulnerable to lefties.
The delivery works, so the Giants aren't likely to alter it; if the changeup improves at all with use, his plus-plus command and out-pitch breaking ball give him the upside of a No. 2 or 3 starter.
RANK #34
AGE: 18
AGE: 18
Angel Villalona (1B)
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Augusta)
It may be unfair to drop Villalona this far, given his youth, but we do have more insight now into just how raw of a prospect he is. Villalona played almost all of 2008 at age 17, and was the youngest player in the full-season Sally League, where he showed plenty of power but also demonstrated problems with pitch recognition that aren't going to go away if he's just pushed up the ladder.
Villalona can murder a fastball or any mistake in his hitting zone, but he struggles with anything soft and away and with better off-speed stuff. Once he's behind in the count, he's not coming back. He drew just 15 unintentional walks this year in exactly 500 plate appearances (but was walked intentionally three times, so he was clearly feared). He's not all-or-nothing, as he has a pretty wide hitting zone and can adjust a little bit to some breaking balls.
The Giants have already moved him to first base -- no small task -- and conditioning will always be a concern, as he's thick-bodied already and was not in great shape for spring training in 2008. He would just now be entering his senior spring if he had been born in the U.S., and yet already has a year and a half under his belt in pro ball, so we can't evaluate him by the same standards we might use for other hitters.
The upside is still there and is tremendous -- four- or five-hole hitter, lots of power, probably never a good OBP -- but it's going to take some time.
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Augusta)
It may be unfair to drop Villalona this far, given his youth, but we do have more insight now into just how raw of a prospect he is. Villalona played almost all of 2008 at age 17, and was the youngest player in the full-season Sally League, where he showed plenty of power but also demonstrated problems with pitch recognition that aren't going to go away if he's just pushed up the ladder.
Villalona can murder a fastball or any mistake in his hitting zone, but he struggles with anything soft and away and with better off-speed stuff. Once he's behind in the count, he's not coming back. He drew just 15 unintentional walks this year in exactly 500 plate appearances (but was walked intentionally three times, so he was clearly feared). He's not all-or-nothing, as he has a pretty wide hitting zone and can adjust a little bit to some breaking balls.
The Giants have already moved him to first base -- no small task -- and conditioning will always be a concern, as he's thick-bodied already and was not in great shape for spring training in 2008. He would just now be entering his senior spring if he had been born in the U.S., and yet already has a year and a half under his belt in pro ball, so we can't evaluate him by the same standards we might use for other hitters.
The upside is still there and is tremendous -- four- or five-hole hitter, lots of power, probably never a good OBP -- but it's going to take some time.
It is a nice change of pace to have some Giants Minor Leaguers actually be PROSPECTS, not just young baseball players....
UPDATE: Law has posted the top prospects by teams - here are hte Giants and A's top players:
San Francisco Giants
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
2. Buster Posey, C
3. Tim Alderson, RHP
4. Angel Villalona, 1B
5. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
6. Henry Sosa, RHP
7. Nick Noonan, 2B
8. Roger Kieschnick,RF
9. Rafael Rodriguez, RF
10. Edwin Quirarte, RHP
Oakland Athletics
1. Brett Anderson, LHP
2. Trevor Cahill, RHP
3. Michel Inoa, RHP
4. Vin Mazzaro, RHP
5. Chris Carter, 1B
6. Sean Doolittle, 1B
7. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
8. Adrian Cardenas, 2B
9. Aaron Cunningham, OF
10. Josh Donaldson, C
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